The 618 promotion has been over for a while, but the aftermath has not dissipated, and many consumers are still complaining that the pre-sales of some clothing brands have not been shipped. What's even more puzzling is that many brands have "pre-sold 30 days of delivery" during the 618 period, and on the other hand, "there are only 3 pieces left in stock".
Source: Little Red Book
The seemingly contradictory scene is a real microcosm of the current Chinese garment industry, and behind it is the "time problem" that clothing brands have to face——That is, the 3-6 month time cycle required by the traditional supply chain from design to shelf is much slower than the change of seasons and trendsFor example, the sales window period for each season of spring, summer, autumn and winter is three or four months, and the popularity of Internet celebrity hits generally lasts for one or two months.
In order to solve this contradiction, many clothing brands have begun to play the "pre-sale spot" model, through the pre-sale to understand the market demand in advance, reduce inventory pressure, and then use a small amount of spot to meet the immediate needs of some consumers.
For example, in order to improve efficiency, a down jacket giant converted 40% of its production capacity into pre-sale orders, and the inventory turnover efficiency jumped by 40%, and a fast fashion brand used pre-sale data to complete explosive orders within 48 hours......
So, how to match and balance between pre-sale and spot in order to make business better?
Pre-sale accurately controls inventory risk
First of all, let's talk about the accuracy of pre-sales on demand forecasting.
Pre-sales are like a "market detector" for apparel brands, helping them find out market trends and consumer preferences in advance. For example, data such as sales, size, color preference, and geographical distribution of products during the pre-sale period can help brandsAccurately predict the first batch of spot production, avoid blind stocking, and dynamically adjust the follow-up production plan, quickly replenish orders for hot sales, and stop losses in time for unsalable products。
A fast fashion brand quickly locked the TOP10 hot models according to the pre-sale data during the 618 period, and then the digital system automatically triggered the regional centralized replenishment, and after the data of its East China warehouse showed that the pre-sale volume of a certain floral skirt exceeded the forecast by 128%, it started the urgent production of the secondary supplier, thus avoiding the potential shortage loss of 500,000 pieces.
According to data from consulting agencies,This year, more than 70% of the brands in the 618 clothing category have adopted pre-sale testing to guide spot stocking, of which pre-sale orders have surged by 32% year-on-year, "chasers" who are willing to wait more than 15 days increased by 33% year-on-year, while "instant gratifiers" who ask for 48 hours of delivery account for 41%.
Based on the data of Zhiyi, we analyzed and compared the number of pre-sales and new products of the three Tmall head fast fashion flagship stores, and notedThe pre-sale ratio during the 618 promotion period is generally higher than that from January to June。 At the same time, the proportion of pre-sold goods in any time period exceeds 30%, which explainsPre-sale has become a normalized sales strategy and an important part of new product sales, not just big sales.
Pre-sales reconstruct cash flow and supply chain
Let's talk about the optimization of cash flow by pre-sale.
In the past, clothing brands generally needed to pay a large amount of money in advance to purchase fabrics and produce clothing, and the financial pressure was very high, and if the sales were not as expected, it was very likely to face the risk of breaking the capital chain.
And pre-sale - the deposit or full payment paid by the consumer in advance,It can not only withdraw funds in advance, but also provide production start-up funds to alleviate the pressure on brand advances。 At the same time, brands can also purchase and produce on demand according to the pre-sale situation, reducing the long-term occupation of funds by inventory, thereby further releasing cash flow, and investing more resources in design, marketing or expansion, so that the flow of funds is more flexible.
The founder of an emerging designer brand said that the pre-sale proceeds covered 75% of the fabric procurement costs, which greatly reduced their borrowing needs for 618 this year. In the past, during the 618 period, he needed to borrow 5 million for turnover, but after the implementation of the pre-sale system, he only needed 2 million, and the interest cost was also reduced.
It can be said thatThe pre-sale deposit is like an "interest-free loan", which helps merchants, especially small and medium-sized brands, greatly alleviate the pressure of advancing funds。
On the other handThe direct flow of pre-sale data through the production line has also promoted the iteration of the flexible supply chain in the apparel industry。
For example, as mentioned above, through the pre-sale accurate understanding of consumer preferences, size, color preferences, geographical distribution and other data, brands can directly pass it on to the factory.Allow factories to quickly adjust production schedules based on identified data。
When an e-commerce apparel brand found a sudden increase in the pre-sale volume of XS codes through the "pre-sale kanban", the factory was able to immediately adjust the cutting machine plan and increase the output of XS codes by 15%, and this dynamic adjustment ability increased the fabric utilization rate to 92%, far exceeding the industry average of 85%.
In today's apparel industry, the response speed of the supply chain production line has become an important factor in determining the life and death of the brand.Small single quick reaction is no longer a differentiating advantage, but the bottom line of survival。
epilogue
At the end of the day, we still need to note thatThe essence of pre-sales is "anticipation"The reason why consumers are willing to pay a deposit is because of their trust and expectation of the product.
However, there is a time lag between pre-sale and actual delivery, and it is natural for consumers to feel "scammed" if they receive a garment that does not meet the high expectations of the pre-sale advertisement after a long waiting period.
During the 618 period this year, data from the Black Cat complaint platform showed that the number of complaints about late delivery of clothing pre-sales increased by 45% year-on-year. A 30-day delay in shipping caused a return rate to soar to 45%. This shows thatWhen the cost of waiting outweighs the price concession, consumer dissatisfaction can quickly spread, causing serious damage to brand reputation。
Therefore, in a highly uncertain market environment,Pre-sale data can only be regarded as a bellwether of market heat, and the quality of spot delivery is the key factor that determines the life and death of the brand。
Blindly pursuing pre-sale data and ignoring the experience of spot delivery is undoubtedly a waste of the basics. The real winners are never the ones who sell out the fastest, but the brands that can get each piece of clothing to the people who expect it. The flowing water does not compete for the first, but the competition is endless.
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